Google Leaving China – Part II
This is the second in my series on Google’s threat to exit the People’s Republic of China. You will get more out of this post, if you read my original post below.
OK. Some people think I’m being too harsh on Google for their threat to stop filtering search results and exit China. So here’s a bit more detail on my thinking.
I’m not mad at Google, I’m just astounded by their hubris. Google, an 11 ½-year-old company, used a blog post, a 12-year-old Internet phenomenon, to threaten the government of China, which claims the heritage of a 2,231-year-old unified society and a 12,000-year-old culture. So this little tiff sounds like a small child threatening a very old man on the street.
More significant is the fact that Google apparently does not understand Asian culture well enough to understand the consequences. That’s what has gotten them into this political rat hole.
Most educated Chinese have a strong sense of history (like Koreans, Japanese, and other Asian people). Many of them can tell you the names of allies – and traitors – during wars of the Three Kingdoms period, almost 2000 years ago. Although their understanding of recent history has been distorted by political factions, it hasn’t affected their memories. Yes, you might say that the G-men are doing a service for the little guy, but the man on the street does not appear to be as interested in full disclosure as the owners of a large search engine. Funny how that works, isn’t it?
So after the accolades that Google received from the press for their initial threat, I have a feeling that one of the adults in the room talked to the management team about the enormity of this decision. I’m sure that someone told them that this could be a 100-year decision. It’s hard for me to imagine the Google CFO looking at a plan to exit the world’s second-largest economy for more than a generation. It will be hard to maintain a P/E ratio on a stock that’s already 26 to 1 when the largest growth market on the planet is permanently out of reach.
China is taking its own path to modernization. In the book, “The Elephant and the Dragon”, by Robyn Meredith, the author says that China is trying to follow Singapore’s model, where economic freedom is achieved with tight political control. Whether we like it or not, it’s hard to imagine that any single person or company will change this. Maybe that’s why Google is spending so much time being quiet about their recent threat.
Thinking more deeply about this, I have a feeling that this could be an early indicator of Google’s impending fall from greatness. Hubris, lack of discipline, and externalizing problems are signs of early stage decline, according to a talk by Jim Collins. Maybe we’re seeing a bigger problem here.
I’m not a big fan of someone who gives a nice speech and then fails to follow through. However, I could forgive Google for backing away from this threat. How about you?
Jim Molini, CISSP, CSSLP
