The CodeGuard Blog

This is the second in my series on Google’s threat to exit the People’s Republic of China.  You will get more out of this post, if you read my original post below.

OK.  Some people think I’m being too harsh on Google for their threat to stop filtering search results and exit China.  So here’s a bit more detail on my thinking.

I’m not mad at Google, I’m just astounded by their hubris.  Google, an 11 ½-year-old company, used a blog post, a 12-year-old Internet phenomenon, to threaten the government of China, which claims the heritage of a 2,231-year-old unified society and a 12,000-year-old culture.  So this little tiff sounds like a small child threatening a very old man on the street.

More significant is the fact that Google apparently does not understand Asian culture well enough to understand the consequences.  That’s what has gotten them into this political rat hole.

Most educated Chinese have a strong sense of history (like Koreans, Japanese, and other Asian people).  Many of them can tell you the names of allies – and traitors – during wars of the Three Kingdoms period, almost 2000 years ago.  Although their understanding of recent history has been distorted by political factions, it hasn’t affected their memories.  Yes, you might say that the G-men are doing a service for the little guy, but the man on the street does not appear to be as interested in full disclosure as the owners of a large search engine.  Funny how that works, isn’t it?

So after the accolades that Google received from the press for their initial threat, I have a feeling that one of the adults in the room talked to the management team about the enormity of this decision.  I’m sure that someone told them that this could be a 100-year decision.  It’s hard for me to imagine the Google CFO looking at a plan to exit the world’s second-largest economy for more than a generation.  It will be hard to maintain a P/E ratio on a stock that’s already 26 to 1 when the largest growth market on the planet is permanently out of reach.

China is taking its own path to modernization.  In the book, “The Elephant and the Dragon”, by Robyn Meredith, the author says that China is trying to follow Singapore’s model, where economic freedom is achieved with tight political control.  Whether we like it or not, it’s hard to imagine that any single person or company will change this.  Maybe that’s why Google is spending so much time being quiet about their recent threat.

Thinking more deeply about this, I have a feeling that this could be an early indicator of Google’s impending fall from greatness.  Hubris, lack of discipline, and externalizing problems are signs of early stage decline, according to a talk by Jim Collins.  Maybe we’re seeing a bigger problem here.

I’m not a big fan of someone who gives a nice speech and then fails to follow through.  However, I could forgive Google for backing away from this threat.  How about you?

Jim Molini, CISSP, CSSLP

Like most of you, I read about Google’s recent threat to exit China over an alleged hacking incident.  Apparently, Google found someone breaking into its network to steal intellectual property and monitor Chinese dissidents.  Aside from the spectacular headlines, I don’t expect much to come of this.  Call me jaded, but this sounds too much like public relations and too little like corporate direction.  In short, if you really think that Google will leave China for more than a month, I have a bridge I’d like to sell you.

I’d be happy to be proven wrong.  I hope that Google succeeds in convincing the People’s Republic to change their stance on censorship.  But I’m not holding my breath.  If Google leaves China and stays out, I will apologize a dozen times to the “Don’t be evil” guys.  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Aside from the really great PR that Google received for threatening to stop censoring searches, I wonder if there is another reason for this sudden bout of indignation.  Could it be related to the recent revelations about Google’s click through practices?  Could it be that the lid was coming off this percolating scandal?  (BTW, thanks to Ryan Naraine for his blog post on this one.)

I had started this post after reading the initial reports, but shelved it, saying that I was being too cynical about another player in the IT industry.  I told myself to be more trusting of a company’s altruistic intent.  Then I read the post by Evgeny Morisov and realized that maybe there was a story here.  If the cynics are right, this would be much more devastating to Google’s image than any of the individual problems they face right now.  Regardless of their reason for making this threat, there is a big difference between waving the gun around and actually pulling the trigger.

But how could anyone tell if the g-men are really sincere?  I guess we’ll have to see how they respond to China’s recent dismissal of their request.  It’s been 24 days since they threatened to stop filtering searches.  That should have been enough time for them to figure out how to flip the switch.  Maybe we can wait until March 15 for them to make their final decision.  More on the decision in a future post.

Maybe people should start to push them forward toward this epic decision.  That’s the ticket. Let’s encourage Google to “do the right thing” and see how they respond.  Is anyone taking bets?

Jim Molini, CISSP, CSSLP